Data Exploration

We’ll look at how much the scoring systems for FanDuel and DraftKings differ from our projections scrape.

It seems that WRs certainly get a point boost from being on DraftKings, which makes sense as DraftKings is full PPR and includes 100+ yard game bonuses. The difference gets slimmer when we look at RB (specifically in the higher tiers) and even more so when looking at QBs.

As we can see, there is some variation near the top, but overall the data is relatively clustered with no large outliers. We see a wide variation in QBs, WRs, and RBs which is to be expected- since there are so many rostered at each position. Now, let’s look at FanDuel and DraftKings separately to see if there are any plays that we can exploit.

In FanDuel cash games, 130 points is an arbitrary number that seems to win you 90% of the time. Thus, any point above this line are our “value” plays. They are projected to get over 2.2x value. However, studs are still studs. This line should help decided what lower tiered players to play, or maybe if there’s a debate between two solid plays. As we get to lower salaries, however, there are less “value” plays. And this makes sense. DFS is about finding these low-priced values in order to be able to rightfully pay up for studs. Additionally, very rarely will we see any DST above this “value” threshold. This is why paying up for defenses doesn’t make sense in the majority of scenarios; rather we should look for defenses that will provide us with the most points per dollar. Again, this frees up money to pay for our more expensive players.

As per DKNation, we should target 125 points, putting us generally in the top 45% needed to win cash games. With DraftKings, we see a modest increase in the amount of value plays, as we see DST closer to our value threshold, as well as more middle-tiered players. Again, we’ll make sure to pay up for studs, but we can see what value plays are out there.

Stacks

We can see how player are projected to do, but that doesn’t help us outright with DFS. Often times, we want to create stacks, where we combine a team’s QB and receiving options (WRs and TEs), so we can correlate our scores. We’ll look at stacking the top receiver and their QB, along with the top two and three with their pass-thrower.

FanDuel

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
38.37625 15800 2.429 BUF Josh Allen 23.04125 8200 Stefon Diggs 15.33500 7600
36.77919 15400 2.388 LAC Justin Herbert 21.70940 7900 Keenan Allen 15.06979 7500
35.76051 2.322 HOU Deshaun Watson 23.26335 8300 Will Fuller 12.49716 7100
37.78295 16400 2.304 SEA Russell Wilson 23.40645 9000 Tyler Lockett 14.37650 7400
39.14260 17400 2.250 ARI Kyler Murray 22.92710 8600 DeAndre Hopkins 16.21550 8800
35.26781 15800 2.232 ATL Matt Ryan 19.23260 7600 Julio Jones 16.03521 8200
30.71345 13900 2.210 BAL Lamar Jackson 20.73170 8100 Marquise Brown 9.98175 5800
29.61401 13400 LV Derek Carr 18.10040 7000 Darren Waller 11.51361 6400
29.03337 13500 2.151 DET Matthew Stafford 19.50730 7500 T.J. Hockenson 9.52607 6000
26.87570 12800 2.100 NYG Daniel Jones 16.07570 6900 Darius Slayton 10.80000 5900
36.92215 17600 2.098 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.83540 9300 Tyreek Hill 14.08675 8300
28.95590 13900 2.083 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 16.63825 7300 Robby Anderson 12.31765 6600
30.53950 14800 2.063 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.84475 7100 Adam Thielen 13.69475 7700
26.42935 12900 2.049 DEN Drew Lock 16.34410 7200 Jerry Jeudy 10.08525 5700
29.02420 14200 2.044 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.29470 7700 JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.72950 6500
30.27650 15000 2.018 TEN Ryan Tannehill 17.83025 7400 A.J. Brown 12.44625 7600
25.60260 13000 1.969 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 14.80210 6700 DeVante Parker 10.80050 6300
22.81000 11900 1.917 CHI Nick Foles 15.25825 6800 Anthony Miller 7.55175 5100
26.60373 14000 1.900 WAS Kyle Allen 13.64000 Terry McLaurin 12.96373 7200
21.96875 11700 1.878 JAX Jake Luton 14.45200 6500 Keelan Cole 7.51675 5200
22.74635 13300 1.710 DAL Garrett Gilbert 12.19510 6300 Amari Cooper 10.55125 7000
9.51025 11500 0.827 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.56300 6000 Trey Burton 7.94725 5500

Stack 2

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
71.30325 29300 2.434 BUF Josh Allen 23.04125 8200 Stefon Diggs 15.335000 7600
Cole Beasley 9.885750 5300
69.15359 29500 2.344 LAC Justin Herbert 21.70940 7900 Keenan Allen 15.069792 7500
Mike Williams 10.665000 6200
69.59361 29800 2.335 HOU Deshaun Watson 23.26335 8300 Will Fuller 12.497160 7100
Brandin Cooks 10.569750 6100
71.63745 31900 2.246 ARI Kyler Murray 22.92710 8600 DeAndre Hopkins 16.215500 8800
Christian Kirk 9.567750 5900
74.95887 33500 2.238 SEA Russell Wilson 23.40645 9000 Tyler Lockett 14.376500 7400
DK Metcalf 13.769468 8100
55.77591 25400 2.196 LV Derek Carr 18.10040 7000 Darren Waller 11.513610 6400
Nelson Agholor 8.061500 5000
63.06841 29000 2.175 ATL Matt Ryan 19.23260 7600 Julio Jones 16.035208 8200
Hayden Hurst 8.568000 5600
57.04117 26300 2.169 DET Matthew Stafford 19.50730 7500 T.J. Hockenson 9.526070 6000
Danny Amendola 8.500500 5300
61.18150 28600 2.139 BAL Lamar Jackson 20.73170 8100 Marquise Brown 9.981750 5800
Mark Andrews 9.736347 6600
60.09650 28700 2.094 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.84475 7100 Adam Thielen 13.694750 7700
Justin Jefferson 12.712250 6800
73.04587 34900 2.093 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.83540 9300 Tyreek Hill 14.086750 8300
Travis Kelce 13.288319 8000
51.62187 25200 2.048 NYG Daniel Jones 16.07570 6900 Darius Slayton 10.800000 5900
Evan Engram 8.670470 5500
51.73920 25400 2.037 DEN Drew Lock 16.34410 7200 Jerry Jeudy 10.085250 5700
Tim Patrick 8.965750 5300
57.81225 28400 2.036 TEN Ryan Tannehill 17.83025 7400 A.J. Brown 12.446250 7600
Corey Davis 9.705500 6000
56.77615 28200 2.013 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.29470 7700 JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.729500 6500
Chase Claypool 9.457250 6300
53.03840 26800 1.979 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 16.63825 7300 Robby Anderson 12.317652 6600
Curtis Samuel 7.444250 5600
47.86470 24800 1.930 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 14.80210 6700 DeVante Parker 10.800500 6300
Preston Williams 7.460000 5100
44.26925 24000 1.845 CHI Nick Foles 15.25825 6800 Anthony Miller 7.551750 5100
Jimmy Graham 6.201000 5300
47.39244 25800 1.837 WAS Kyle Allen 13.64000 Terry McLaurin 12.963731 7200
Logan Thomas 7.148710 5000
41.37075 22800 1.815 JAX Jake Luton 14.45200 6500 Keelan Cole 7.516750 5200
Chris Conley 4.950000 4600
43.52345 25400 1.714 DAL Garrett Gilbert 12.19510 6300 Amari Cooper 10.551250 7000
CeeDee Lamb 8.582000 5800
16.00350 22400 0.714 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.56300 6000 Trey Burton 7.947250 5500
Jack Doyle 4.930250 4900

Stack 3

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
102.70100 43000 2.388 BUF Josh Allen 23.04125 8200 Stefon Diggs 15.335000 7600
Cole Beasley 9.885750 5300
John Brown 8.356500 5500
99.42486 2.312 LAC Justin Herbert 21.70940 7900 Keenan Allen 15.069792 7500
Mike Williams 10.665000 6200
Hunter Henry 8.561870 5600
100.41896 43500 2.308 HOU Deshaun Watson 23.26335 8300 Will Fuller 12.497160 7100
Brandin Cooks 10.569750 6100
Randall Cobb 7.562000 5400
100.76030 45500 2.215 ARI Kyler Murray 22.92710 8600 DeAndre Hopkins 16.215500 8800
Christian Kirk 9.567750 5900
Larry Fitzgerald 6.195750 5000
81.56056 37500 2.175 LV Derek Carr 18.10040 7000 Darren Waller 11.513610 6400
Nelson Agholor 8.061500 5000
Hunter Renfrow 7.684250 5100
103.70532 47700 2.174 SEA Russell Wilson 23.40645 9000 Tyler Lockett 14.376500 7400
DK Metcalf 13.769468 8100
David Moore 5.340000 5200
81.75372 38400 2.129 DET Matthew Stafford 19.50730 7500 T.J. Hockenson 9.526070 6000
Danny Amendola 8.500500 5300
Marvin Hall 5.205250 4600
103.59827 49800 2.080 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.83540 9300 Tyreek Hill 14.086750 8300
Travis Kelce 13.288319 8000
Mecole Hardman 7.717000 5600
86.05945 41500 2.074 BAL Lamar Jackson 20.73170 8100 Marquise Brown 9.981750 5800
Mark Andrews 9.736347 6600
Miles Boykin 4.146250 4800
82.82276 40600 2.040 ATL Matt Ryan 19.23260 7600 Julio Jones 16.035208 8200
Hayden Hurst 8.568000 5600
Luke Stocker 0.521750 4000
76.18607 37600 2.026 NYG Daniel Jones 16.07570 6900 Darius Slayton 10.800000 5900
Evan Engram 8.670470 5500
Sterling Shepard 8.488500 5500
84.02006 41500 2.025 TEN Ryan Tannehill 17.83025 7400 A.J. Brown 12.446250 7600
Corey Davis 9.705500 6000
Jonnu Smith 8.377558 5700
81.29400 40200 2.022 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.84475 7100 Adam Thielen 13.694750 7700
Justin Jefferson 12.712250 6800
Kyle Rudolph 4.352750 4400
84.28685 41900 2.012 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.29470 7700 JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.729500 6500
Chase Claypool 9.457250 6300
Diontae Johnson 9.216000 6000
77.01080 38400 2.005 DEN Drew Lock 16.34410 7200 Jerry Jeudy 10.085250 5700
Tim Patrick 8.965750 5300
Noah Fant 8.927500 5800
73.09040 38700 1.889 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 16.63825 7300 Robby Anderson 12.317652 6600
Curtis Samuel 7.444250 5600
Ian Thomas 3.413750 4600
68.90780 36800 1.872 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 14.80210 6700 DeVante Parker 10.800500 6300
Preston Williams 7.460000 5100
Mike Gesicki 6.241000 5300
65.52750 36300 1.805 CHI Nick Foles 15.25825 6800 Anthony Miller 7.551750 5100
Jimmy Graham 6.201000 5300
Darnell Mooney 6.000000 5500
60.34925 33800 1.785 JAX Jake Luton 14.45200 6500 Keelan Cole 7.516750 5200
Chris Conley 4.950000 4600
Tyler Eifert 4.526500 4500
62.36744 36600 1.704 WAS Kyle Allen 13.64000 6800 Terry McLaurin 12.963731 7200
Logan Thomas 7.148710 5000
Jeremy Sprinkle 1.335000 4000
62.80705 37100 1.693 DAL Garrett Gilbert 12.19510 6300 Amari Cooper 10.551250 7000
CeeDee Lamb 8.582000 5800
Michael Gallup 7.088500 5400
21.44375 33300 0.644 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.56300 6000 Trey Burton 7.947250 5500
Jack Doyle 4.930250 4900
Marcus Johnson 3.877250 4900

DraftKings

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
40.63223 13800 2.944 LAC Justin Herbert 21.85940 6800 Keenan Allen 18.77283 7000
41.97500 14400 2.915 BUF Josh Allen 23.29125 7000 Stefon Diggs 18.68375 7400
28.72935 9900 2.902 DEN Drew Lock 16.46910 5200 Jerry Jeudy 12.26025 4700
32.93862 11500 2.864 LV Derek Carr 18.37540 5700 Darren Waller 14.56322 5800
38.79552 13600 2.853 ATL Matt Ryan 19.40760 6400 Julio Jones 19.38792 7200
40.99420 14400 2.847 SEA Russell Wilson 23.51895 7600 Tyler Lockett 17.47525 6800
29.44070 10400 2.831 NYG Daniel Jones 16.57570 5400 Darius Slayton 12.86500 5000
38.36042 13900 2.760 HOU Deshaun Watson 23.37835 7100 Will Fuller 14.98207 6800
43.15260 16000 2.697 ARI Kyler Murray 23.12710 7800 DeAndre Hopkins 20.02550 8200
23.92750 8900 2.688 JAX Jake Luton 14.80200 4900 Keelan Cole 9.12550 4000
31.38919 11700 2.683 DET Matthew Stafford 19.70730 6600 T.J. Hockenson 11.68189 5100
24.90125 9500 2.621 CHI Nick Foles 15.39825 5500 Anthony Miller 9.50300 4000
28.02010 10700 2.619 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.00210 DeVante Parker 13.01800 5200
39.49965 15200 2.599 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.92290 8100 Tyreek Hill 16.57675 7100
31.94355 12300 2.597 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 16.73825 6000 Robby Anderson 15.20530 6300
33.41700 12900 2.590 MIN Kirk Cousins 17.04475 6200 Adam Thielen 16.37225 6700
33.25970 2.578 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.13170 6900 Marquise Brown 12.12800 6000
32.84275 2.546 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.08025 6300 A.J. Brown 14.76250 6600
29.52146 11800 2.502 WAS Kyle Allen 14.04000 5300 Terry McLaurin 15.48146 6500
31.52170 12700 2.482 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.36970 6500 JuJu Smith-Schuster 13.15200 6200
25.48135 10400 2.450 DAL Garrett Gilbert 12.49510 4800 Amari Cooper 12.98625 5600
11.25025 7900 1.424 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.62300 4400 Trey Burton 9.62725 3500

Stack 2

Now, the top two receivers and their QB:

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
74.96163 25700 2.917 LAC Justin Herbert 21.85940 6800 Keenan Allen 18.772834 7000
Mike Williams 12.470000 5100
77.50450 26800 2.892 BUF Josh Allen 23.29125 7000 Stefon Diggs 18.683750 7400
Cole Beasley 12.238250 5400
56.23970 19700 2.855 DEN Drew Lock 16.46910 5200 Jerry Jeudy 12.260250 4700
Noah Fant 11.041250 4600
68.78362 24100 2.854 ATL Matt Ryan 19.40760 6400 Julio Jones 19.387915 7200
Hayden Hurst 10.580500 4100
56.86082 20100 2.829 NYG Daniel Jones 16.57570 5400 Darius Slayton 12.865000 5000
Evan Engram 10.844419 4300
74.64477 26500 2.817 HOU Deshaun Watson 23.37835 7100 Will Fuller 14.982071 6800
Brandin Cooks 12.906000 5500
61.58949 22000 2.800 DET Matthew Stafford 19.70730 6600 T.J. Hockenson 11.681891 5100
Danny Amendola 10.493000 3700
60.90802 21900 2.781 LV Derek Carr 18.37540 5700 Darren Waller 14.563220 5800
Nelson Agholor 9.594000 4700
81.23359 29800 2.726 SEA Russell Wilson 23.51895 7600 Tyler Lockett 17.475250 6800
DK Metcalf 16.720437 7800
66.10159 24600 2.687 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.13170 6900 Marquise Brown 12.128000 6000
Mark Andrews 11.710193 4800
77.90120 29100 2.677 ARI Kyler Murray 23.12710 7800 DeAndre Hopkins 20.025500 8200
Christian Kirk 11.621500 5300
44.75450 16800 2.664 JAX Jake Luton 14.80200 4900 Keelan Cole 9.125500 4000
Chris Conley 6.025000 3000
65.59900 25200 2.603 MIN Kirk Cousins 17.04475 6200 Adam Thielen 16.372250 6700
Justin Jefferson 15.137250 6100
78.75594 30500 2.582 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.92290 8100 Tyreek Hill 16.576750 7100
Travis Kelce 16.333387 7200
52.11720 20300 2.567 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.00210 5500 DeVante Parker 13.018000 5200
Preston Williams 9.095000 4100
48.14800 18800 2.561 CHI Nick Foles 15.39825 Anthony Miller 9.503000 4000
Jimmy Graham 7.848500 3800
57.69105 22700 2.541 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 16.73825 6000 Robby Anderson 15.205304 6300
Curtis Samuel 9.009250 4400
61.36490 24200 2.536 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.36970 6500 JuJu Smith-Schuster 13.152000 6200
Diontae Johnson 11.473500 5000
52.46888 20800 2.523 WAS Kyle Allen 14.04000 5300 Terry McLaurin 15.481462 6500
Logan Thomas 8.907421 3700
62.78850 25100 2.502 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.08025 6300 A.J. Brown 14.762500 6600
Corey Davis 11.865500 5900
48.65845 20100 2.421 DAL Garrett Gilbert 12.49510 4800 Amari Cooper 12.986250 5600
CeeDee Lamb 10.682000 4900
19.10850 15200 1.257 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.62300 4400 Trey Burton 9.627250 3500
Jack Doyle 6.235250 2900

Stack 3

And finally, our most correlated stack. Often times, we would want to run this back with a receiver on the opposing team, but we’ll deal with that later.

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
107.52077 36500 2.946 LAC Justin Herbert 21.85940 6800 Keenan Allen 18.772834 7000
Mike Williams 12.470000 5100
Hunter Henry 10.699739 4000
110.86475 38400 2.887 BUF Josh Allen 23.29125 7000 Stefon Diggs 18.683750 7400
Cole Beasley 12.238250 5400
John Brown 10.069000 4600
107.35387 38100 2.818 HOU Deshaun Watson 23.37835 7100 Will Fuller 14.982071 6800
Brandin Cooks 12.906000 5500
Randall Cobb 9.330750 4500
83.72330 29800 2.810 DEN Drew Lock 16.46910 5200 Jerry Jeudy 12.260250 4700
Noah Fant 11.041250 4600
Tim Patrick 11.014500 4900
88.78267 31700 2.801 LV Derek Carr 18.37540 5700 Darren Waller 14.563220 5800
Nelson Agholor 9.594000 4700
Hunter Renfrow 9.499250 4100
84.25252 30300 2.781 NYG Daniel Jones 16.57570 5400 Darius Slayton 12.865000 5000
Evan Engram 10.844419 4300
Sterling Shepard 10.816000 4800
111.19879 40500 2.746 SEA Russell Wilson 23.51895 7600 Tyler Lockett 17.475250 6800
DK Metcalf 16.720437 7800
David Moore 6.446250 3100
87.44829 32400 2.699 DET Matthew Stafford 19.70730 6600 T.J. Hockenson 11.681891 5100
Danny Amendola 10.493000 3700
Marvin Hall 6.151500 3800
88.89547 33000 2.694 ATL Matt Ryan 19.40760 6400 Julio Jones 19.387915 7200
Hayden Hurst 10.580500 4100
Luke Stocker 0.704250 2500
109.09155 40700 2.680 ARI Kyler Murray 23.12710 7800 DeAndre Hopkins 20.025500 8200
Christian Kirk 11.621500 5300
Larry Fitzgerald 8.063250 3800
65.21175 24400 2.673 JAX Jake Luton 14.80200 4900 Keelan Cole 9.125500 4000
Chris Conley 6.025000 3000
Tyler Eifert 5.655250 2700
92.24079 34700 2.658 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.13170 6900 Marquise Brown 12.128000 6000
Mark Andrews 11.710193 4800
Miles Boykin 5.007500 3200
91.08712 35300 2.580 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.08025 6300 A.J. Brown 14.762500 6600
Corey Davis 11.865500 5900
Jonnu Smith 10.218367 3900
110.94209 43400 2.556 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.92290 8100 Tyreek Hill 16.576750 7100
Travis Kelce 16.333387 7200
Mecole Hardman 9.263250 4800
88.02025 34500 2.551 MIN Kirk Cousins 17.04475 6200 Adam Thielen 16.372250 6700
Justin Jefferson 15.137250 6100
Kyle Rudolph 5.376500 3100
71.04625 28200 2.519 CHI Nick Foles 15.39825 5500 Anthony Miller 9.503000 4000
Jimmy Graham 7.848500 3800
Darnell Mooney 7.500000 3900
91.14435 36400 2.504 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.36970 6500 JuJu Smith-Schuster 13.152000 6200
Diontae Johnson 11.473500 5000
Chase Claypool 11.409750 5700
78.74930 31500 2.500 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 16.73825 6000 Robby Anderson 15.205304 6300
Curtis Samuel 9.009250 4400
Ian Thomas 4.320000 2800
74.88030 30200 2.479 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.00210 5500 DeVante Parker 13.018000 5200
Preston Williams 9.095000 4100
Mike Gesicki 7.761000 4400
69.96955 28900 2.421 DAL Garrett Gilbert 12.49510 4800 Amari Cooper 12.986250 5600
CeeDee Lamb 10.682000 4900
Michael Gallup 8.816000 4000
68.26888 28600 2.387 WAS Kyle Allen 14.04000 5300 Terry McLaurin 15.481462 6500
Logan Thomas 8.907421 3700
Jeremy Sprinkle 1.760000 2500
25.50875 22600 1.129 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.62300 4400 Trey Burton 9.627250 3500
Jack Doyle 6.235250 2900
Marcus Johnson 4.777250 3000

Again, we’ll want to see which of these stacks is the most expensive, so we’ll graph the stacks projected points against their total salary. We’ll look for more value in our stacks, since they’re heavily correlated and are able to outperform their projections.